Global sales of cancer drugs will grow at a compounded annual rate of 12% to 15%, reaching $75 to $80 billion by 2012, according to a new forecast by IMS Health. The growth rate for oncology products will nearly double the forecasted growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market, which grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007.

According to IMS, contributing to global market growth is the evidence that more patients in the emerging markets are gaining access to modern targeted therapies, and increasing number of cancer patients on chemotherapy in Europe, Japan and North America. 

The IMS 2008 Global Oncology Forecast identifies the following key market dynamics influencing market growth through 2012:
 
Budgetary constraints in major markets lead to increased rigor for selecting targeted therapies.
Payers are increasingly focused on survival rates as a key determinant for reimbursement and formulary approval. Moreover, payers are scrutinizing response rates more closely, recognizing that any improvements would drive cost efficiencies.

Improved screening, diagnosis and access to innovative medicines in the developing world.
Stronger growth will be driven by the pharmerging markets (China, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, India, Turkey and Russia), where improvements in screening and diagnosis are becoming available and individuals are becoming more aware of cancer risks and available treatments.
 
New products and combination therapies.
IMS expects future growth to be bolstered by the introduction of 25 to 30 new chemical entities between 2008 and 2012, helping to sustain the trend of an expanding patient population treated with targeted therapies. While many of these new therapies will treat the most prevalent tumor types — breast and non-small cell lung cancer — several new drugs in late-stage development will target prostate and pancreatic cancer as well as melanoma.
 
Growth contribution of the top markets falls.
In 2007, 71% of oncology product sales came from the U.S. and Europe’s top five markets — France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and Spain. IMS forecasts that by 2012, these markets will contribute approximately 65% of sales to the global oncology market.